As we close out the summer months and head into fall, it's clear the Northern Virginia real estate market is finding its footing. The past two months have shown some interesting shifts, moving away from the frenzy we've seen in previous years and settling into a more balanced—but still competitive—environment. As one of the top real estate teams in Northern Virginia, Debbie Dogrul Associates is committed to providing you with the most accurate and up-to-date analysis to help you make informed decisions, whether you're buying or selling.

This report summarizes the most recent data from Bright MLS, focusing on key Northern Virginia areas: Alexandria City, Arlington County, City of Fairfax, Fairfax County, Falls Church City, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William County. We'll look at trends over the last 30 days and compare them to this time last year.

The 30-Day Snapshot: August 28 – September 28, 2025

The last month has been a story of new inventory and strong listing prices, with some shifts in buyer activity.

• Average Median List Price: Across our focus areas, the median list price has seen a general increase over the past month. Fairfax County and Loudoun County, for instance, showed notable month-over-month growth. Fairfax County's median list price rose from
  $725,000 at the end of August to $735,000 by the end of September. Similarly, Loudoun County's median list price climbed from
• $844,500 to $777,498, even with some weekly fluctuations. While some areas experienced weekly dips, the overall trend points to sellers continuing to price their homes confidently.
• Average Days on Market (DOM): The data doesn't provide a direct "days on market" figure, but we can look at the pace of new listings versus new pending contracts to gauge how quickly homes are moving. In the last week of September, Loudoun County had
  120 new listings and 142 new pending contracts, indicating strong demand that is keeping pace with new inventory. Fairfax County had
• 277 new listings and 322 new pending contracts, showing that homes are still going under contract quickly. This suggests that well-priced homes are still attracting buyers rapidly, keeping the market competitive.
• Inventory and Buyer Demand: A key trend is the continued influx of new listings. Over the last 30 days, we've seen a consistent flow of new homes coming to market. For example, Fairfax County saw
  291 new listings at the end of August and 277 at the end of September, with weekly numbers staying high. New pending contracts have also remained robust, with areas like Arlington and Prince William County showing strong week-over-week activity, suggesting that while some buyers may be more cautious, demand is far from gone. Showings, however, have shown some decline in several areas compared to the previous week, hinting at a slight cooling in buyer foot traffic.

Year-Over-Year Analysis: A Different Story

Comparing the last 30 days to the same period in 2024 reveals a more dynamic picture.

• List Prices: Many areas are experiencing significant year-over-year gains in median list price. Arlington County is a prime example, with its median list price jumping
  30.6% compared to a year ago, reaching $875,000 in mid-September. Falls Church City saw a massive
• 500% increase in new listings year-over-year at the end of July, while Fairfax County had a
• 24.4% increase in new listings year-over-year in the same period. These figures highlight a market that continues to appreciate, even with month-to-month fluctuations.
• New Listings: This is where we see one of the biggest stories. In late September, Alexandria City saw a
  52.8% increase in new listings year-over-year, and Fairfax County was up 6.5%. This increase in available homes is a welcome change for buyers, who have struggled with low inventory for so long.
• Pending Contracts and Showings: While new listings and prices are up, the pace of pending contracts and showings has shown some mixed results compared to last year. While Prince William County saw a
  9.9% increase in showings year-over-year in late September, Falls Church City experienced a decline of 44.1% in showings. This suggests that while there is still significant interest in the market, the level of intense competition and bidding wars from a year ago may be moderating.

Notable Trends

1. Price Adjustments Are Becoming More Common: One key indicator of the market's shift is the percentage of active listings with a price drop. Manassas City, for example, saw a significant increase in this metric, with the percentage of active listings with a price drop rising from
   5.6% at the end of August to 25% a month later. This trend is consistent across many areas and signals a move toward more realistic pricing.
2. More Homes for Buyers to Choose From: The sustained increase in new listings is a significant positive for buyers. With more options available, buyers are gaining a bit of leverage they haven't had recently. This doesn't mean it's a buyer's market, but it does mean that buyers can be more selective and may not need to rush into decisions as they did a year ago.

Advice for Buyers and Sellers

For Sellers:

• Price It Right from the Start: The days of aggressive overpricing are largely behind us. With more homes on the market and a slight drop in buyer urgency, pricing your home correctly from day one is more critical than ever. A well-priced home will still generate multiple offers, but an overpriced home may sit on the market and require a price reduction, which can signal a problem to potential buyers.
• Focus on Presentation: With more competition, your home needs to stand out. Invest in professional staging, photography, and minor repairs. A move-in-ready home will always have an advantage.
• Be Flexible with Showings: The market is still moving fast, but buyers aren't as desperate. Be accommodating with showing times and be prepared to receive offers that may have contingencies.

For Buyers:

• Don't Wait for a Crash: While the market is moderating, it's not collapsing. Prices are still strong, and year-over-year appreciation is evident. Waiting on the sidelines could mean missing out on your dream home.
• Get Your Finances in Order: With more listings available, you have more choices, but you still need to be a strong contender. Get pre-approved for a mortgage so you can act quickly when you find the right property.
• Be Patient, But Decisive: Use the increased inventory to your advantage to be selective. But when you find a home that meets your criteria and is priced well, be prepared to move decisively.

Market Outlook for the Month Ahead

We anticipate a continued stabilization of the Northern Virginia market in the coming month. The seasonal slowdown into late fall and early winter is likely to bring a further decline in new listings and showings. While demand will remain, the pace might slow a bit, offering a window of opportunity for serious buyers to find a home with less competition. For sellers, this means a smaller pool of buyers, but those who are active in the market are likely to be highly motivated.

Want to learn more about how these trends affect your specific situation? Our team at Debbie Dogrul Associates has the local expertise and data to help you navigate this market successfully.

Contact Us for Your Real Estate Needs

Ready to make your next move? Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, a seasoned investor, or looking to sell your property, our team is here to help. Contact Debbie Dogrul Associates today to get a personalized market analysis or to discuss your real estate goals.